Weekly Meter

• Total new contract activity fell from 1,095 contracts last year to 825 this year, a decline of 270 contracts, or 24.7%.
• Every jurisdiction posted a double-digit decrease, ranging from -14.1% in Montgomery County to a striking -49.6% in Loudoun County.
• The weighted regional average days on market increased from 43.9 days to 46.3 days, a relatively modest increase of 2.5 days, or 5.7%. That's notable given the much larger decline in transaction volume.
• Year-to-date, the region has recorded 41,426 contracts compared with 42,363 last year, a decline of 937 contracts, or 2.2%. The cumulative deficit is growing, but remains nowhere near the magnitude of the recent weekly declines.

• At this point, there's no calendar quirk to blame and no reason to pretend this is simply normal weekly volatility. The market has slowed.
• This week's decline was broad: Northern Virginia was down 19.5%, Loudoun 49.6%, Prince William 22.3%, Montgomery 14.1%, Prince George's 33.2%, and Washington, DC 20.5%.
• And unlike some previous weeks, there weren't many price categories offering refuge. Loudoun's activity below $750,000 fell more than 60%. Prince George's was down substantially both below and above $750,000. Washington, DC declined at both ends of the market. Even Northern Virginia's higher-priced segment, which has frequently been a source of strength, fell 22.7%.
• There were exceptions. Northern Virginia contracts below $300,000 increased 30%, Montgomery posted gains below $500,000 and between $750,000 and $1 million, and Loudoun's $1.5 million-plus category increased. Prince William also had an unusual surge between $1 million and $1.5 million, although we're talking about only ten contracts versus one last year. But those are pockets of strength within an unmistakably weaker week.
• And then there are days on market. This remains one of the more interesting aspects of the current slowdown.
• Contract volume fell 24.7%, yet the weighted average days on market increased only 5.7%, from 43.9 to 46.3 days.
• And two jurisdictions actually improved. Loudoun fell from 44.8 to 40.9 days, while Prince William declined from 32.2 to 30.5 days. Northern Virginia increased modestly from 32.0 to 34.5 days, and Prince George's moved from 55.4 to 58.3.
• Montgomery experienced a more noticeable increase, from 36.3 to 45.0 days, while DC remains the region's slowest-moving market at 81.9 days versus 79.1 last year.
• It's an odd combination: far fewer contracts without a comparable deterioration in how quickly successful listings are selling.
• Part of the explanation may actually be the same thing that's hurting overall activity: mortgage rates. When rates rise rapidly, marginal buyers may step away altogether. But serious buyers who have found the right house may have an additional incentive to act rather than wait and risk financing costs moving even higher. We can't prove that from these data alone, but it would be consistent with what we're seeing: a smaller buyer pool that remains decisive when the right property comes along.
• And that's an important distinction for sellers. This isn't a market where nobody is buying. It's a market where fewer people are buying, and they're becoming increasingly selective about what deserves their attention.

• Northern Virginia: 334 → 269 (-19.5%)
• Loudoun County: 123 → 62 (-49.6%)
• Prince William County: 112 → 87 (-22.3%)
• Montgomery County: 206 → 177 (-14.1%)
• Prince George's County: 193 → 129 (-33.2%)
• Washington, DC: 127 → 101 (-20.5%)
• Combined contracts: 1,095 → 825 (-24.7%)
• Weighted average days on market: 43.9 → 46.3 days (+5.7%)
• Combined YTD contracts: 42,363 → 41,426 (-937 contracts, or -2.2%) 

The clouds we talked about last week haven't cleared. If anything, rising mortgage rates have made them a little darker. But the disconnect between contract volume and market time continues to matter. We're losing transactions much faster than we're losing velocity. That suggests the market hasn't run out of buyers—it has run out of some of its marginal buyers.

The ones still shopping seem to know what they want. And when they find it, they're still willing to act.

• Combined new contract activity declined from 174 contracts in 2025 to 146 in 2026, a decrease of 28 contracts, or 16.1%.
• The Virginia Countryside fell from 89 to 72 contracts (-19.1%), while the West Virginia Panhandle declined from 85 to 74 (-12.9%).
• The combined weighted average days on market increased from 41.3 to 44.2 days, an increase of 7.2%. But that regional number masks a significant divergence: Countryside DOM actually improved 15.0%, while the Panhandle increased 39.2%.
• Year-to-date, these markets are now almost perfectly even with last year: 7,049 contracts versus 7,066, a difference of just 17 transactions, or -0.2%

• At this point, we're seeing enough consecutive weeks of weaker contract activity to know that this isn't simply statistical noise. The slowdown that began in August has persisted into the fall, and rapidly higher mortgage rates certainly aren't helping.
• The Virginia Countryside declined 19.1%, with weakness across nearly every price category. Contracts below $750,000 fell 19.5%, while those above $750,000 declined 16.7%.
• There was one eye-catching exception: three homes above $1.5 million went under contract compared with one last year. That's encouraging, although with numbers this small, we shouldn't build a market thesis around two additional sales.
• The West Virginia Panhandle declined 12.9%, and its results were a little more mixed. Contracts below $300,000 actually increased slightly, from 30 to 31, while the $300,000–$499,999 category declined 10.3%. The biggest weakness came between $500,000 and $749,999, where activity was cut in half, from 14 contracts to seven.
• So yes, this was another weak week. But the days-on-market numbers provide an interesting wrinkle.
• The Countryside's buyers are still making decisions. Despite a 19.1% decline in contracts, average days on market in the Countryside fell from 48.0 to 40.8 days, an improvement of 15.0%.
• That's consistent with the strange pattern we've been seeing elsewhere in the region: fewer buyers are participating, but the serious buyers who remain aren't necessarily moving more slowly.
• The Panhandle tells a different story. Average days on market increased from 34.2 to 47.6 days, a substantial 39.2% increase. Because of that increase, the combined weighted average rose from 41.3 to 44.2 days.
• Still, it's worth keeping the magnitude in perspective. Contract activity is down 16.1%, while combined marketing time is up about 7%. We're clearly experiencing reduced demand, but we're not seeing a corresponding collapse in the market's ability to get homes under contract.
• And the longer-term numbers reinforce that point. After more than 7,000 contracts, these two markets are just 17 transactions behind last year's pace. That's remarkably close to even.

• Virginia Countryside: 89 → 72 contracts (-19.1%)
• Countryside DOM: 48.0 → 40.8 days (-15.0%)
• West Virginia Panhandle: 85 → 74 contracts (-12.9%)
• Panhandle DOM: 34.2 → 47.6 days (+39.2%)
• Combined contracts: 174 → 146 (-16.1%)
• Combined weighted DOM: 41.3 → 44.2 days (+7.2%)
• Combined YTD contracts: 7,066 → 7,049 (-17 contracts, or -0.2%)

The heartbeat analogy has served us pretty well with these markets, and it still does.

Right now, the Countryside chamber is beating faster even though it's pumping a little less volume; the Panhandle chamber is moving more slowly. Put them together, and the overall pulse isn't as strong as we'd like.

But after nine months and more than 7,000 contracts, we're essentially even with last year. That's not a booming market, and recent trends certainly deserve attention.

It's also a long way from cataclysmic.

The heartbeat continues. We might just prefer a slightly cleaner EKG next week.