Weekly Meter

• Combined new contract activity fell from 1,033 contracts in 2025 to 776 this year, down 257 contracts (-24.9%) — the sharpest weekly decline of the slide, surpassing last week's -23.0% and the prior week's -15.2%.
• All six jurisdictions posted declines for the third consecutive week.
• Prince George's County, last week's steepest decliner at -35.2%, flipped to this week's best performer at “just” -9.2%, the second flip-flop in as many weeks for that jurisdiction.
• Loudoun County took over as the region's weak spot, down 40.0%, its largest single-week drop this fall.
• Washington, DC's average days on market jumped from 56.9 to 82.7 days (+45.3%), a sharp reversal from last week, when DC properties were selling noticeably faster than a year earlier.
• The region's weighted average days on market climbed from 45.2 to 55.0 days (+21.7%), a far bigger jump than last week's modest +3.2%.
• Year-to-date, the region has recorded 43,825 contracts versus 45,401 last year, a gap of 1,576 contracts (-3.5%), wider than last week's -3.0% gap, continuing to widen for a third straight week.

• This is now a three-week pattern, not a one-off: -15.2%, then -23.0%, then -24.9%. Each week the regional decline has gotten worse, not better, which argues against blaming any single week's calendar quirk and toward something more structural, likely elevated mortgage rates holding in the high-6s/low-7s deep into fall, compounding with the normal seasonal pullback heading into November rather than offsetting it.
• Washington, DC's reversal is the single most telling data point of the week. Last week DC was the region's best performer on both volume (-9.9%, smallest decline) and speed (days on market improved 30.2%), the bright spot we flagged as evidence that "pockets of demand are still moving efficiently." This week DC's days on market spiked 45.3% to 82.7 days, the slowest mark anywhere in the dataset, while its contract volume fell another 27.9%.
• Prince George's County did the opposite: worst performer last week (-35.2%), best performer this week (-9.2%). Two jurisdictions swinging from best to worst (or worst to best) inside a single week is a reminder that at this pace of year-over-year decline, individual weekly jurisdiction rankings are close to noise — the regional direction is the signal, not which county happens to hold the "least bad" spot in any given seven-day window.
• Days on market is becoming as important a story as contract volume. Four of six jurisdictions (Northern Virginia, Loudoun, Montgomery, Prince George's) posted double-digit percentage increases in time-to-contract this week, and the region-wide weighted average jumped more than 20% in a single week — the sharpest days-on-market move we've logged this fall. Rising days on market alongside falling volume is the textbook signature of a market shifting leverage toward buyers: fewer contracts being written, and the ones that do get written are taking longer to get there.
• The widening year-to-date gap: -2.5% two weeks ago, -3.0% last week, -3.5% this week — shows the weekly weakness is no longer sitting on top of a flat year; it's now dragging the full-year comparison further negative each week. If the pattern holds through November, 2026 full-year contract volume is likely to finish meaningfully below 2025, a shift from the "slightly behind but roughly flat" framing that held through most of the summer.
• Loudoun's -40.0% decline is the steepest single-jurisdiction print in the dataset this week, paired with a 26.1% jump in days on market. Worth watching next week to see whether that's a genuine Loudoun-specific pullback (new-construction inventory competing with resale, a softer tech-adjacent buyer pool) or simply the kind of outsized single-week swing even a mid-sized jurisdiction can produce.
• None of this points to a crash as contract volume is still running within 3.5% of last year's pace year-to-date, but three consecutive weeks of broad, accelerating declines heading into November is a genuinely different signal than the choppy, mixed-week pattern the region saw through late summer and early fall. Rate relief, if it comes, would be the most obvious circuit-breaker; absent that, expect the seasonal slowdown and rate-driven caution to keep compounding rather than offsetting each other.

• Northern Virginia: 317 → 242 (-23.7%)
• Loudoun County: 105 → 63 (-40.0%)
• Prince William County: 118 → 76 (-35.6%)
• Montgomery County: 190 → 146 (-23.2%)
• Prince George's County: 163 → 148 (-9.2%)
• Washington, DC: 140 → 101 (-27.9%)
• Combined contracts: 1,033 → 776 (-24.9%)
• Weighted average days on market: 45.2 → 55.0 days (+21.7%)
• Combined year-to-date contracts: 45,401 → 43,825 (-1,576 contracts, or -3.5%)

• Virginia Countryside: 68 → 71 contracts, +4.4%, with the under-$750K segment up 4.8% and the over-$750K segment flat at 6 contracts both years.
• West Virginia Panhandle: 93 → 62 contracts, -33.3%, driven almost entirely by the under-$750K segment (-32.6%); the over-$750K segment essentially evaporated (one contract last year, zero this year — too small a sample to read into).
• Combined contract activity across both markets: 161 → 133, -17.4% for the week.
• Virginia Countryside's average days on market jumped from 46.5 to 62.1 days (+33.5%), the largest single-week marketing-time increase in either market.
• West Virginia Panhandle's average days on market actually improved, 42.9 → 40.2 days (-6.3%), even as contract volume fell sharply — homes that did go under contract moved faster, not slower.
• Year-to-date, Virginia Countryside remains positive at +1.2% (3,756 → 3,800), while West Virginia Panhandle is down a modest 3.6% (3,815 → 3,676) — both far calmer readings than this week's swings suggest.
• West Virginia Panhandle's year-to-date over-$750K segment is up 61.8% (68 → 110 contracts) — still a small absolute number, but the fastest-growing segment in either market this year.

• Start with the core lesson for both these markets: weekly swings here are loud, and the year-to-date trend is where the real signal lives. A 33.3% weekly drop in West Virginia sounds alarming next to Metro DC's headline number this week, but on a base of 60-90 weekly contracts, a dozen-contract swing moves the percentage dramatically — the YTD number (-3.6%) tells a far steadier story than the weekly print.
• Virginia Countryside is quietly having one of its better stretches of the year — up both this week (+4.4%) and year-to-date (+1.2%), a dual-positive reading that's increasingly rare across the broader region this fall, where Metro DC just posted its third straight week of across-the-board declines. That divergence is worth noting: the smaller, more rural Virginia markets aren't tracking the same deceleration pattern as the close-in suburbs right now.
• The jump in Virginia Countryside's average days on market (+33.5%, to 62.1 days) alongside rising contract volume is an interesting combination — it's not simply "more buyers moving faster." It points to either a mix shift toward properties that inherently take longer to find a buyer (larger acreage, more unique or rural listings) or sellers holding firmer on price and waiting out slower-moving buyers rather than discounting to speed things up. Worth watching whether that days-on-market number holds or reverts next week.
• West Virginia Panhandle's days on market actually improved (-6.3%) even as volume fell sharply — a combination that argues against reading this week's decline as demand simply drying up. If buyer interest were collapsing, homes sitting on the market would typically take longer to sell, not less. The more likely explanation is fewer new contracts initiated this particular week — perhaps a function of a thinner available inventory pool or a pause after a stronger prior stretch — with the contracts that did happen moving efficiently once underway.
• The real story buried in the West Virginia numbers is the over-$750K segment's 61.8% year-to-date growth. It's still a small number in absolute terms (110 contracts versus 68 last year), but a market where the luxury end is growing at that pace while overall transaction counts soften modestly suggests buyer demand is shifting toward higher price points even as total activity cools — plausibly DC-area buyers chasing more land and larger homes at the Panhandle's relatively lower price-per-square-foot compared with Northern Virginia or Loudoun.
• Taken together, these two adjoining smaller markets are telling slightly different stories this fall: Virginia Countryside holding its own and even gaining ground, West Virginia Panhandle treading water on volume while its upper end strengthens. Neither looks anything like the broader regional slowdown playing out in the Metro DC jurisdictions this week — a reminder that "the market" isn't one market, and local dynamics (commute patterns, land availability, price-point mix) still matter enormously at this scale.
• Note on continuity: a Countryside/WV-specific prior commentary still couldn't be located in the Weekly Meter mailbox this week (same gap flagged after the 10/18 pilot), so no multi-week streak language is used above — only comparisons the current data can actually support.

• Virginia Countryside: 68 → 71 (+4.4%); YTD 3,756 → 3,800 (+1.2%)
• West Virginia Panhandle: 93 → 62 (-33.3%); YTD 3,815 → 3,676 (-3.6%)
• Combined weekly: 161 → 133 (-17.4%)
• Virginia Countryside average days on market: 46.5 → 62.1 days (+33.5%)
• West Virginia Panhandle average days on market: 42.9 → 40.2 days (-6.3%)
• West Virginia Panhandle year-to-date over-$750K: 68 → 110 contracts (+61.8%)

Same region, same week, two very different stories. Further proof that the rural areas are never really just one market.