Why Pricing Matters, Even In a Hot Seller’s Market

Every seller thinks their home is The Best Listing. But the most successful sellers have a plan to make their property stand out to buyers.

The winter holidays aren’t known for frantic selling of real estate, especially when homes to buy are few and far between and buyers are focused on spending their dollars elsewhere. And stubborn interest rates that refuse to move below 7% is keeping a lot of people on the sidelines. But as we prepare for what’s new in 2025, it’s smart to look to last month’s statistics for clues as to what savvy home sellers can do to be ready… and where buyers should be focused.

There has been a significant pullback on the overall relationship of sales price to original list price, and the average days on market has increased as well. Nonetheless, overall housing supply in almost all of the 17+ jurisdictions we track is still less than 2 months, an indication of a strong seller’s market; a balanced market is when there is a 5- to 6-month supply of housing inventory.

(The notable exceptions are: Washington, DC, where overall supply reached 5.5 months, and all three property types – detached, townhome & condominium – exceed 4 months, and Baltimore City, where supply is 2.9 months.)

A modest easing of the market isn’t new and we’ve watched this trend for several months. What it tells us is that sellers who ”get it right” still sell quickly at a substantial premium. And despite this move toward a slightly more balanced market, there is still a significant gap between “Very Successful Sellers” and all the other sellers. Let’s take a look at their advantages.

The Difference Between Immediate Success and an Eventual Sale

The “Very Successful Sellers” are those who sold at or above original list price. In DC in December, 35% of all homes going to settlement sold above original list price – a 1.9% premium above list. And they sold in an average of just 39 days.

Contrast that with the “Eventually Successful Sellers,” who sold below original list price. That was 65% of all homes settling in DC in December and they took a big haircut, selling for an average of 12.1% below original list and with an average of 103 days to sell. That’s a lot of money and a lot of time those sellers lost by not pricing their homes correctly at the outset.

Pity the “Hopeful Sellers” – those whose homes are still on the market, waiting for offers — who have been on the market for an average of 122 days.

Let’s look at some other regional stats:

In Montgomery County, half of the properties that settled sold at an average of +2% above original list in an average of 19 days. The other half of properties sold at just 94% of original list in 53 days. The average days on market for those homes that are unsold is 79.
In Alexandria, 36.6% of homes sold in 18 days at an average +1.8% above list price, while 63.4% of homes sold at an average of -4.4% below list price and took nearly 52 days to sell, just beating out those still unsold at 58 days on market.
Arlington & Falls Church sales averaged almost 45 days on market, with 43% of very successful sellers finding buyers within 13.5 days and for +2.4% above list, compared to 57% of eventually successful sellers who took almost 70 days to sell and -5.1% below list price. Hopeful sellers languished at nearly 90 days unsold, one of the highest of all the areas we surveyed.
In Fairfax County & Fairfax City, successful sellers made up more than half of all sales – 53.6% – with a healthy +2.1% above list price and under contract in 13 days. The remaining 46.4% of eventual sellers sold at almost -6% below list and it took nearly two months to get there. The hopeful sellers are hanging on for nearly 74 days.
Prince William County has one of the tightest markets for inventory, with just a 0.9 month’s supply of available properties. The most successful sellers saw +1.4% over list price and went under contract in 16.7 days. Eventual sellers got there in 51 days but at -4.8% below list price. If there’s a glimmer of hope for those unsold properties, it’s that they had the lowest days on market of the regions we surveyed, at 49 days unsold.
In Prince Georges County, 53.6% sellers sold at +1.4% above list in 21 days, while the remaining sellers netted -5.7% below list and it took just over two months to sell. Unsold homes have been on the market for and average of 65.6 days.
Big round of applause for Loudoun County most successful sellers, 56.5% of whom took just 9 days to sell and got +1.2% above list. The eventual sellers took 44 days with a -4.7% under list price, while unsold homes remained on the market for 71 days.
The Virginia Countryside’s most successful sellers saw the closest list/sale price of +0.6% in 17 days, but they were just 38.5% of all sales. The remaining 61.5% of sellers took 70.5 days to sell at a lackluster -8.1% below list price. That’s making it tough for the “hopeful” sellers who take 2nd place to DC in remaining days on market at 94.9 days.
West Virginia rounds out our regional look with a 2.3 month supply of inventory. This was also the most evenly divided of statistical insight: successful sellers made up 50.3% of sales at +0.5 above list in 44 days while eventual sellers made up 49.7% of sales netting -6.3% below list price over two months on market. Hopeful sellers have been on the market for nearly three months.

Plan for Success

What can a seller do to ensure they land in the “Highly Successful” camp? The first step is to work with a licensed Realtor® who will provide local market insight and guide your pricing strategy. The second is to prepare your home to attract the most qualified buyers: fix, remodel, and paint for the best first impression, and consider offering credits for buyers.

Finally, have a plan to make a pricing adjustment if the home hasn’t sold within 21 days, which appears to be the local “tipping point” when sales prices drop. Most experts agree that a listing that is 30 days on market without an offer is likely 3-5% overpriced. Be ready to make a pricing decision that keeps you within a competitive time-and-pricing window that keeps buyers interested.

As we have noted before, there are still buyers actively engaged in the market, but they make their decisions based on value. And they don’t see value in an overpriced home. So, heed the warnings of three out of four kinds of sellers who learned the hard way: price matters and time kills.

Read more housing analysis in our Market in a Minute and Weekly Meter and connect with one of our agents to find the best strategy to very successfully sell your home!

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