Weekly Contract Activity | DC, MD, VA, WV

D.M.V. Contract Activity

Rates Went Up. Buyers Sat Down

Last week brought a fairly clear reminder that mortgage rates still matter. With rates climbing to their highest level in roughly a year, contract activity softened across nearly the entire Metro DC region. Only Montgomery County managed an increase, while two jurisdictions were essentially flat and three posted double-digit declines.

The encouraging counterpoint is the longer view: four of the six jurisdictions remain ahead of last year year-to-date, so one difficult week hasn't changed the broader 2026 story.

Key Takeaways

Total new contract activity across the six jurisdictions fell from 1,048 contracts last year to 996 this year, a decline of 52 contracts, or 5.0%.
Montgomery County was the only jurisdiction to post an increase, rising 6.9%. Loudoun (-1.0%) and Prince George's (-0.6%) were essentially flat, while Northern Virginia (-12.0%), Prince William (-4.7%), and Washington, DC (-12.4%) moved lower.
The weighted average days on market increased from 38.7 days last year to 41.1 days this year, an increase of 2.3 days, or 6.0%.
Year-to-date, however, regional contract activity remains positive: 33,079 contracts last year compared with 33,620 this year, an increase of 541 contracts, or 1.6%.

Why It Matters

There are weeks when we have to search for an explanation in the numbers. This isn't really one of them.
Mortgage rates rose to their highest level in about a year, and contract activity declined in five of the six jurisdictions. That's a pretty straightforward relationship. Higher rates affect affordability immediately, and for buyers already stretching to make the numbers work, even a modest increase can be enough to postpone a decision.
There are some interesting details beneath the headline. Northern Virginia's decline was concentrated at the upper end. Contracts below $750,000 were essentially unchanged (-1.1%), but activity above $750,000 fell 23.0%, including a 51.6% decline above $1.5 million. That's an unusually sharp split.
Montgomery County bucked the regional trend, with contracts rising 6.9%. Even more interesting, its strength came largely from the upper end: activity above $750,000 increased 12.2%, including gains of 28.6% in both million-dollar-plus categories.
Prince William also showed an interesting price-point divide. Overall contracts declined 4.7%, but contracts above $750,000 increased 17.9%. Smaller numbers make those percentages more volatile, but the contrast is worth noting.
Days on market also bear watching. The regional average rose about 6%, but the change wasn't uniform. Loudoun jumped from 39.1 to 48.2 days, and Prince George's increased from 45.6 to 53.6 days. Meanwhile, Montgomery and DC actually improved slightly.
Most importantly, the year-to-date numbers provide perspective. Northern Virginia (+2.9%), Prince William (+8.8%), Montgomery (+2.0%), and Prince George's (+0.7%) are all still ahead of 2025. Loudoun (-2.2%) and Washington, DC (-4.5%) remain the two jurisdictions running behind.
So this was unquestionably a sluggish week—but so far it looks more like buyers reacting to another affordability squeeze than evidence of a broader change in market direction.

The Real Estate Details

Northern Virginia: 351 → 309 (-12.0%)
Loudoun County: 99 → 98 (-1.0%)
Prince William County: 127 → 121 (-4.7%)
Montgomery County: 189 → 202 (+6.9%)
Prince George's County: 161 → 160 (-0.6%)
Washington, DC: 121 → 106 (-12.4%)
Total contracts: 1,048 → 996 (-5.0%)
Weighted average days on market: 38.7 → 41.1 days (+6.0%)
Combined year-to-date contracts: 33,079 → 33,620 (+1.6%)

CONTRACT ACTIVITY SUMMARY →

Blue Ridge Contract Activity

The Heartbeat Is Back—and This Time the Panhandle Missed a Beat

Another week, another sharp divergence between the Virginia Countryside and the West Virginia Panhandle.

This time, the Countryside posted a solid gain while the Panhandle fell sharply. Put them together, though, and the overall result was a meaningful slowdown—one that fits with the broader softness we saw across the Metro DC market as higher mortgage rates weighed on buyer activity.

Key Takeaways

Combined contract activity fell from 206 contracts last year to 172 this year, a decline of 34 contracts, or 16.5%.
The two markets once again moved in opposite directions:
Virginia Countryside: 97 → 105 contracts (+8.2%)
West Virginia Panhandle: 109 → 67 contracts (-38.5%)
The combined weighted average days on market increased from 42.0 days to 47.2 days, an increase of 5.2 days, or 12.4%.
Despite the weak week, the year-to-date picture remains positive. Combined contracts increased from 5,392 last year to 5,690 this year, a gain of 298 contracts, or 5.5%.

Why It Matters

This week's numbers are another reminder of just how differently these two rural markets can behave from one another.
The Virginia Countryside actually had a good week, with contracts rising 8.2%. Activity below $300,000 nearly doubled, and the market also posted strong gains above $750,000. In fact, contracts over $750,000 increased from 10 to 13, a 30% gain.
The West Virginia Panhandle, on the other hand, had a very difficult week. Contracts dropped nearly 39%, driven almost entirely by weakness below $500,000, where activity was cut in half in both major price categories.
That contrast brings us back to the heartbeat analogy we've used before. These markets rarely seem to beat in sync. One chamber pumps while the other rests, then they reverse roles. This week the Countryside did the heavy lifting, but the Panhandle's drop was simply too large to offset.
Days on market also moved higher. The combined weighted average rose about 12%, with the Countryside increasing from 50.2 to 54.7 days and the Panhandle edging up from 34.7 to 35.5 days. Unlike some prior weeks, this wasn't the result of one extreme outlier—it was a broader, modest slowdown in market speed.
Still, the longer-term trend remains encouraging. The Countryside is 5.0% ahead year-to-date, while the Panhandle is 6.0% ahead. Even after a very weak week, both markets remain comfortably above last year's cumulative contract activity. That matters more than any one seven-day period.

The Real Estate Details

Virginia Countryside: 97 → 105 (+8.2%)
West Virginia Panhandle: 109 → 67 (-38.5%)
Combined contracts: 206 → 172 (-16.5%)
Weighted average days on market: 42.0 → 47.2 days (+12.4%)
Combined year-to-date contracts: 5,392 → 5,690 (+5.5%)

CONTRACT ACTIVITY SUMMARY →

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