Weekly Meter

• Combined new contract activity fell from 1,130 contracts in 2025 to 972 in 2026, a decline of 158 contracts, or 14.0%.
• All six jurisdictions posted lower activity, but the declines varied considerably. Prince George's County fell 39.3%, while Loudoun County was down just 1.0% and Washington, DC declined only 2.8%.
• The weighted average days on market improved from 44.0 days to 42.0 days, a decrease of 2.0 days, or 4.6%.
• Year-to-date, the region has now recorded 39,756 contracts compared with 40,148 last year, a decline of 392 contracts, or 1.0%.
• The market is no longer running ahead of 2025, but the cumulative decline remains considerably smaller than the weekly numbers might suggest.

• Last week, we pointed out that the timing of Labor Day made the year-over-year comparison unusually unfavorable. We were looking forward to a cleaner reading this week. Well, we got one. And it wasn't particularly pretty.
• Contract activity declined 14% across the region, confirming that the slowdown we've experienced since early August is more than a holiday-related interruption.
• Mortgage rates moving above 7% certainly don't help. At that level, financing costs can materially affect monthly payments, affordability and buyers' willingness to make a commitment. It is reasonable to suspect that higher rates are contributing to the slowdown, although the contract data alone cannot tell us exactly how much.
• Still, there are some genuinely encouraging details beneath the regional total.
• Northern Virginia declined 8.8% overall, but its higher-priced market actually grew. Contracts above $750,000 increased 8.2%, including a 37.5% jump in the $1 million–$1.5 million category. Meanwhile, average days on market fell from 41.1 to 30.7 days.
• Loudoun County was essentially flat, with 98 contracts compared with 99 last year. Its upper-end market increased 14.9%, and average days on market improved from 40.9 to 31.5 days.
• Montgomery County declined 13.0%, but contracts above $750,000 increased 5.3%. Days on market also improved modestly, from 40.9 to 38.2 days.
• Washington, DC was down only 2.8%, a meaningful improvement relative to its recent performance. Average days on market declined from 64.9 to 60.5 days, although DC continues to have the longest marketing times among the six jurisdictions.
• Prince William County was down 13.7%, with days on market increasing from 31.8 to 38.9 days. It remains one of the region's more resilient markets when viewed year-to-date.
• The most difficult result came from Prince George's County, where contract activity dropped 39.3%, from 196 to 119. Days on market also increased sharply, from 46.6 to 68.0 days. That combination deserves attention, particularly if it persists.
• Taken together, the days-on-market figures offer an important counterpoint to the declining contract totals.
• Four jurisdictions improved, two worsened, and the regional weighted average declined 4.6%.
• That doesn't mean the market is healthy everywhere. But it does mean the slowdown in contract volume hasn't translated into a uniform deterioration in how quickly homes are finding buyers.

• The region has now recorded 392 fewer contracts than at this point last year, a decline of 1.0%.
• That is a meaningful change from the spring, when contract activity was running several percentage points ahead of 2025. August erased that advantage, and September has pushed the market modestly into negative territory.
• But the cumulative numbers also illustrate why we shouldn't confuse a difficult stretch with a wholesale change in market conditions. After nearly 40,000 contracts, the region is running just 1% behind last year.
• Prince William remains up 5.9% year-to-date, and Northern Virginia is still ahead by 0.6%. Montgomery is down 0.9%, Prince George's is down 2.2%, Loudoun is down 5.7%, and Washington, DC is down 6.0%.
• The market has clearly lost momentum. The next question is whether this represents a prolonged period of reduced activity or whether buyers will begin to reengage as the fall market progresses.
• We won't answer that question with one report. But at least we're now looking at the market without Labor Day getting in the way.

• Northern Virginia:-8.8%
• Loudoun County: -1.0%
• Prince William County: -13.7%
• Montgomery County: -13.0%
• Prince George's County: -39.3%
• Washington, DC: -2.8%
• Combined: -14.0%

Weighted average days on market: 44.0 → 42.0 days (-4.6%).

• Northern Virginia: +0.6%
• Loudoun County: -5.7%
• Prince William County: +5.9%
• Montgomery County: -0.9%
• Prince George's County: -2.2%
• Washington, DC: -6.0%
• Combined: -1.0%

The calendar has run out of excuses, and so have we. This has been a difficult stretch for contract activity, and mortgage rates above 7% aren't making life any easier.

But there's a difference between a market that's slowing and one that's seizing up. Nearly 1,000 contracts were still written across the region last week, and the homes that found buyers did so faster, on average, than a year ago.

The market is adjusting to a more challenging environment. Buyers are more deliberate, sellers need to be more realistic, and the pace of activity is slower than we'd like.

That's not the story we were hoping September would tell. But it is one we can work with.

• Combined new contract activity fell from 211 contracts in 2025 to 140 this year, a decline of 71 contracts, or 33.6%.
• Both markets were down significantly. The Virginia Countryside declined 22.5%, from 89 contracts to 69, while the West Virginia Panhandle fell 41.8%, from 122 to 71.
• The combined weighted average days on market increased from 49.1 days to 53.5 days, an increase of 4.4 days, or 9.0%. But there's an important wrinkle: Countryside market times increased substantially, while the Panhandle's actually improved.
• And despite the difficult late-summer stretch, the combined year-to-date picture remains positive: 6,544 contracts last year versus 6,611 this year, an increase of 67 contracts, or 1.0%.

• A 33.6% decline gets your attention. And it should.
• But just as with this week's Metro DC report, the timing of Labor Day makes the year-over-year comparison unusually unfavorable. The holiday fell squarely within this year's reporting period but was already behind us during last year's comparable week. Some portion of this decline is almost certainly calendar-driven.
• That said, we can't give the calendar all the blame. These markets were already slowing during August, and this report continues that trend.
• The Virginia Countryside held up better, declining 22.5%. There was even one conspicuous bright spot: contracts below $300,000 increased 60%, from 10 to 16. But that wasn't enough to overcome substantial declines between $300,000 and $1 million.
• The West Virginia Panhandle had the more difficult week, falling 41.8%. The weakness was broad, with activity below $750,000 dropping from 117 contracts to 71, a decline of 39.3%, and no contracts above $750,000 compared with five last year.
• Our recurring "heartbeat" analogy isn't quite as much fun when both chambers are contracting at the same time.
• But the days-on-market numbers offer some useful perspective. Countryside DOM rose fairly sharply, from 53.1 to 66.2 days, while the Panhandle moved in exactly the opposite direction, improving from 46.1 to 41.1 days. Combined and weighted by contract activity, DOM increased 9.0%.
• That Panhandle result is particularly interesting. Contract volume dropped more than 40%, yet the homes that did find buyers went under contract faster than they did last year. Once again, transaction volume and market velocity aren't necessarily telling the same story.
• The year-to-date numbers are also worth keeping front and center. The Virginia Countryside remains 2.2% ahead of last year, at 3,324 contracts versus 3,251. The West Virginia Panhandle has now slipped just barely behind, at 3,287 versus 3,293—a difference of only six contracts.
• Combined, these markets remain 1.0% ahead of 2025, with 67 additional contracts year-to-date.
• That's not the cushion we had earlier this summer, but it's still notable given the weakness we've experienced since August. And it remains a somewhat healthier year-to-date performance than the closer-in Metro DC market, which has now slipped modestly below last year's pace.

• The longer-term numbers remain more encouraging than the weekly report.
• The Virginia Countryside has recorded 3,404 contracts compared with 3,332 last year, an increase of 72 contracts, or 2.2%.
• The West Virginia Panhandle has recorded 3,347 contracts compared with 3,376, a decline of 29 contracts, or 0.9%.
• Combined, the markets remain ahead by 43 contracts, or 0.6%.
• That represents a significant narrowing of the cushion built earlier in the year, but it also means the Countryside's continued strength has been sufficient to offset the Panhandle's modest year-to-date decline.
• The longer-term price-point trends offer another encouraging detail. In the Virginia Countryside, contracts above $750,000 are up 11.4% year-to-date. In the Panhandle, that segment is up 75%, albeit from a much smaller base of transactions.
• So while the overall market has become more challenging, buyers haven't abandoned the upper end.
• And compared with the closer-in Metro DC market, which is now running approximately 1% behind last year, these rural markets continue to hold up a little better on a combined year-to-date basis.

• Virginia Countryside: 89 → 69 (-22.5%)
• West Virginia Panhandle: 122 → 71 (-41.8%)
• Combined contracts: 211 → 140 (-33.6%)
• Weighted average days on market: 49.1 → 53.5 days (+9.0%)
• Virginia Countryside YTD: 3,251 → 3,324 (+73 contracts, +2.2%)
• West Virginia Panhandle YTD: 3,293 → 3,287 (-6 contracts, -0.2%)
• Combined YTD: 6,544 → 6,611 (+67 contracts, +1.0%)