Weekly Meter

• Combined new contract activity fell from 903 contracts in 2025 to 706 this year, down 197 contracts (-21.8%) — a smaller decline than last week's record -25.9%, even as every jurisdiction posted another down week.
• All six jurisdictions posted declines for a fifth consecutive week; none turned positive.
• Loudoun County was by far the steepest decliner at -45.5% (110 → 60 contracts) — its worst weekly reading of the fall, and nearly double the next-steepest jurisdiction's decline.
• Prince William County held the "least bad" spot for a second straight week, at -12.8%, following last week's -18.8%.
• Washington, DC's days-on-market spike streak broke: after back-to-back jumps of +45.3% and +32.0% the prior two weeks, DC's average days on market rose just +1.0% this week (79.7 → 80.5 days) — essentially flat.
• Montgomery County logged the week's sharpest single days-on-market jump, +26.7% (46.4 → 58.8 days), taking over that distinction from Prince George's County, whose own days on market actually improved -5.0% this week even as its contract volume kept falling.
• Year-to-date, the region recorded 45,292 contracts versus 47,331 last year, a gap of 2,039 contracts (-4.3%) — wider than last week's -4.0%, a fifth straight week of widening, though the weekly increments have been shrinking (roughly +0.5, +0.5, +0.5, now +0.3 points).

• Five straight weeks of across-the-board declines firmly establishes this as a sustained seasonal cooling rather than a blip. But this week complicates the "accelerating slowdown" narrative of the past month: the pace of decline itself eased, from -25.9% to -21.8%, suggesting the market may be closer to finding a floor than continuing to worsen.
• Loudoun County's -45.5% reading is the single steepest weekly decline logged by any jurisdiction all fall, and it deserves scrutiny before being read as a trend shift. Loudoun's weekly sample is modest (110 contracts a year ago, just 60 this week — a 50-contract swing), so a sharp single-week drop carries more statistical noise here than in a larger jurisdiction like Northern Virginia or Montgomery. Worth watching whether next week reverts toward Loudoun's year-to-date trend (-10.5%) or confirms a genuinely deeper local slide.
• DC's days-on-market deceleration (+1.0% this week versus +45.3% and +32.0% the prior two weeks) is a meaningful reversal from how last week's data read — as a "genuine shift" in that market's dynamics. This week's number suggests more caution was warranted: the two-week DC spike may have reflected a handful of longer-marketed listings clearing together rather than a durable structural change. The signal-vs-noise lesson that usually applies to the smaller Countryside markets apparently applied to DC this fall too.
• The "most troubled jurisdiction" keeps rotating rather than settling in one place: DC carried the DOM spike two weeks ago, Prince George's carried it last week (volume and DOM together), and now Montgomery takes the DOM-jump title this week while PG actually improves on both fronts relative to its own prior week. That rotation argues for broad-based, diffuse softening across the region rather than one jurisdiction cracking under jurisdiction-specific stress.
• Prince William County's second straight week as the "least bad" performer (-18.8% last week, -12.8% this week) is now a genuine two-week pattern, not a one-off. Combined with its positive year-to-date reading (+1.1%, the only jurisdiction still ahead of last year), Prince William continues to look like the region's most insulated market this fall — worth watching whether that holds into a third week or reverts to the regional pattern.
• The year-to-date gap has widened for a fifth straight week (-2.5%, -3.0%, -3.5%, -4.0%, now -4.3%), but the size of each week's incremental widening has been shrinking — roughly half a point for three straight weeks, now just three-tenths of a point. That's consistent with a market settling into a new, lower baseline rather than one still accelerating downward — a meaningfully different read than "this keeps getting worse," even though the cumulative gap itself is still growing.
• The rate environment remains the backdrop driver: mortgage rates still sitting in the high-6s/low-7s range give buyers little reason to rush, compounded by the usual seasonal pullback as the calendar turns toward the holidays. But this week's details — an easing (not accelerating) weekly decline, a decelerating days-on-market growth rate, and a rotating rather than concentrated "worst jurisdiction" — collectively argue the market may be leveling off at its current, cooler pace rather than continuing to deteriorate week over week.
• None of this is a turnaround signal yet — every jurisdiction is still down, and the year-to-date gap is still the widest it's been all year — but five weeks in, the character of the slowdown looks less like an accelerating slide and more like a market that has found, for now, a steadier if still weaker cruising altitude.

• Northern Virginia: 260 → 212 (-18.5%); YTD 14,988 → 14,613 (-2.5%)
• Loudoun County: 110 → 60 (-45.5%); YTD 4,747 → 4,247 (-10.5%)
• Prince William County: 86 → 75 (-12.8%); YTD 5,330 → 5,387 (+1.1%)
• Montgomery County: 169 → 137 (-18.9%); YTD 8,872 → 8,507 (-4.1%)
• Prince George's County: 148 → 127 (-14.2%); YTD 7,605 → 7,222 (-5.0%)
• Washington, DC: 130 → 95 (-26.9%); YTD 5,789 → 5,316 (-8.2%)
• Combined contracts: 903 → 706 (-21.8%)
• Weighted average days on market: 50.3 → 53.6 days (+6.6%)
• Combined year-to-date contracts: 47,331 → 45,292 (-2,039 contracts, or -4.3%)

Five weeks of decline tells you this is real; this week's smaller decline tells you it might not be getting worse.

• Virginia Countryside: 67 → 59 contracts, -11.9%, with both price bands softening in tandem (under-$750K -11.9%, over-$750K -11.1%).
• West Virginia Panhandle: 79 → 40 contracts, -49.4% — the steepest single-week decline logged by either market all fall, essentially cutting the Panhandle's weekly volume in half.
• Combined contract activity across both markets: 146 → 99, -32.2% for the week.
• Virginia Countryside's average days on market held essentially flat, 43.9 → 44.0 days (+0.2%) — a sharp contrast to last week's +71.8% spike, suggesting that reading was indeed a one-week artifact rather than a new baseline.
• West Virginia Panhandle's average days on market jumped 69.5% (31.8 → 53.9 days) — its steepest DOM increase all fall, moving in the same direction as its volume collapse rather than offsetting it.
• Year-to-date, Virginia Countryside remains positive and essentially unchanged at +0.6% (3,913 → 3,937), while West Virginia Panhandle's year-to-date gap widened to -4.4% (3,963 → 3,787), its widest of the fall.
• West Virginia Panhandle's year-to-date over-$750K segment remains the one standout bright spot, up 60.0% (70 → 112 contracts) — still growing even as the overall Panhandle number keeps softening.

• This is the third consecutive week West Virginia has underperformed Virginia Countryside, following two weeks of the two markets swapping leadership back and forth (Countryside up/WV down two weeks ago, then WV up/Countryside down last week). A third straight week of WV weakness — and this week by a wide margin — starts to look less like noise and more like an emerging pattern worth tracking into next week, even though the hard rule for small-sample markets is still to lean on the year-to-date column before calling it a trend.
• That said, the year-to-date numbers confirm this is still mostly noise rather than a fundamental shift: West Virginia's YTD gap widened from -3.5% to -4.4%, a meaningful but not dramatic move, while Virginia Countryside's YTD reading barely moved at all (+0.9% to +0.6%). A week where Panhandle volume was cut in half moved its full-year trend line by less than a single point — exactly the signal-vs-noise lesson this report keeps returning to for these two smaller markets.
• Virginia Countryside's days-on-market reading snapping back to flat (+0.2%) after last week's eye-catching +71.8% spike is itself an important data point: it confirms that spike was very likely the one-week artifact this report flagged last week — a cluster of longer-marketed listings finally clearing together — rather than a genuine shift in how quickly homes are moving in that market. Worth remembering the next time a single-week swing in either Countryside market looks alarming.
• West Virginia's days-on-market jump (+69.5%) moving in the same direction as its volume collapse (-49.4%) is a different, more coherent signal than last week's pattern, when Panhandle volume rose while days on market fell. This week, fewer contracts took meaningfully longer to reach — a combination that, if it persists, would be more concerning than either metric moving in isolation, since it suggests both buyer demand and deal velocity softening together rather than one offsetting the other.
• The over-$750K West Virginia segment's continued YTD growth (+60.0%, following +63.2% last week) remains the most durable storyline in either countryside market this fall — DC-area buyers still migrating out to the Panhandle for land and larger homes at lower price-per-square-foot appears to be a structural pull that's holding up even as the broader Panhandle number swings sharply week to week.
• Taken together with the Metro DC data this same week — where the pace of decline actually eased for the first time in five weeks — the Countryside/WV picture tells a more mixed story: Virginia Countryside's fundamentals look stable and largely undisturbed, while West Virginia Panhandle's third straight underperforming week, even if mostly noise so far, is the one data point in this week's full report worth flagging for continued attention rather than dismissing outright.
• The practical read for agents: Virginia Countryside's flat days-on-market number this week is reassuring confirmation that last week's spike was noise, not a new normal — stick with the +0.6% YTD story. West Virginia Panhandle's third consecutive weaker week deserves a watch-and-see approach rather than alarm; if next week brings a fourth straight underperforming print, that would be the point to start treating it as a genuine trend rather than a small-sample swing.

• Virginia Countryside: 67 → 59 (-11.9%); YTD 3,913 → 3,937 (+0.6%)
• West Virginia Panhandle: 79 → 40 (-49.4%); YTD 3,963 → 3,787 (-4.4%)
• Combined weekly: 146 → 99 (-32.2%)
• Virginia Countryside average days on market: 43.9 → 44.0 days (+0.2%)
• West Virginia Panhandle average days on market: 31.8 → 53.9 days (+69.5%)
• West Virginia Panhandle year-to-date over-$750K: 70 → 112 contracts (+60.0%)

Three weeks of role-swapping later, West Virginia is the one market in this report that's starting to repeat itself.