Weekly Meter

• Combined new contract activity fell from 1,120 contracts last year to 845 this year, a decline of 275 contracts, or 24.6%. Every jurisdiction experienced a double-digit decline, with Loudoun and Prince William posting particularly sharp decreases.
• The regional weighted average days on market actually improved, falling from 44.2 days to 41.7 days, a decrease of 2.5 days, or 5.8%.
• Four of the six jurisdictions recorded shorter marketing times. That provides a welcome counterpoint to an otherwise difficult report, although it doesn't erase the weakness in contract volume.
• Year-to-date, the region has recorded 40,601 contracts compared with 41,268 last year, a decline of 667 contracts, or 1.6%. The cumulative decline is growing, but remains substantially smaller than the recent weekly drops.

• We can officially retire the Labor Day explanation.
• The calendar certainly distorted the comparison two weeks ago, but subsequent reports have confirmed that the slowdown is real. This week's 24.6% decline is particularly discouraging because the weakness extends across virtually every jurisdiction and price category.
• Northern Virginia declined 23.8%, with activity below $750,000 falling 23.1% and higher-priced contracts declining 24.3%. Montgomery County experienced a similarly broad slowdown, with total contracts down 27.8%.
• Loudoun and Prince William had especially difficult weeks, declining 37.6% and 32.0%, respectively. Even Prince William, which has consistently demonstrated relative strength throughout 2026, hasn't escaped the late-summer slowdown.
• Prince George's County and Washington, DC experienced smaller, though still substantial, declines of 15.4% and 14.8%.
• There were a few isolated bright spots. Northern Virginia's under-$300,000 category increased 27.3%, while Washington, DC recorded gains in both the $1 million–$1.5 million and $1.5 million-plus categories. Those pockets of strength are encouraging, but they aren't enough to change the broader picture.
• The more interesting story is days on market. Loudoun's average fell from 44.7 to 29.1 days, Prince George's improved from 55.5 to 41.2 days, and Washington, DC declined from 68.3 to 61.1 days. Northern Virginia was essentially unchanged.
• Montgomery and Prince William moved in the opposite direction, experiencing moderately longer marketing times.
• Combined, and weighted by each jurisdiction's contract activity, the regional average declined 5.8%.
• That's a striking result alongside a nearly 25% reduction in contracts. It suggests that the homes attracting buyers are still moving reasonably quickly, even as fewer transactions occur overall.
• There is an important qualification: days on market measures homes that actually went under contract. It doesn't tell us how long unsold listings have been sitting. We shouldn't mistake faster sales among successful listings for proof that overall demand remains unchanged.
• Nevertheless, it reinforces an important distinction. The number of transactions has fallen much more dramatically than the speed at which successful transactions are occurring.
• And while the region is now 1.6% behind last year's cumulative contract activity, that longer-term comparison remains considerably less severe than the recent weekly reports.
• The market has clearly lost momentum. But the year-to-date numbers remind us that a difficult August and September don't define the entire year.

• Northern Virginia 362 276 -23.8%
• Loudoun County 109 68 -37.6%
• Prince William County 128 87 -32.0%
• Montgomery County 223 161 -27.8%
• Prince George's County 156 132 -15.4%
• Washington, DC 142 121 -14.8%
• Combined 1,120 845 -24.6%

• Northern Virginia 34.5 34.6 +0.3%
• Loudoun County 44.7 29.1 -34.9%
• Prince William County 40.1 41.5 +3.5%
• Montgomery County 39.0 45.1 +15.6%
• Prince George's County 55.5 41.2 -25.8%
• Washington, DC 68.3 61.1 -10.5%
• Combined weighted average 44.2 41.7 -5.8%

Combined year-to-date new contracts: 41,268 in 2025 versus 40,601 in 2026, a decline of 667 contracts (-1.6%).

The clouds have clearly gathered over the Metro DC housing market, and there's little reason to pretend otherwise. August's weakness has carried into September, and the latest numbers suggest buyers remain cautious.

But the market continues to offer an interesting contradiction: substantially fewer contracts, yet shorter marketing times for the homes finding buyers.

Perhaps the best description is that the market has lost volume without losing all its velocity. We'd certainly prefer to see both moving in the right direction, but for now, that distinction offers at least a little sunshine through the clouds.

• Combined new contract activity declined from 184 contracts last year to 152 this year, a decrease of 32 contracts, or 17.4%.
• The Virginia Countryside was essentially flat, declining just 2.3%, while the West Virginia Panhandle fell 31.3%. The Countryside's relative stability helped these markets hold up better than the immediate Metro DC area, where activity dropped 24.6%.
• The combined weighted average days on market fell from approximately 47.7 days to 40.9 days, an improvement of 6.9 days, or 14.4%.
• Year-to-date, the combined markets are essentially even with last year: 6,892 contracts in 2025 compared with 6,903 in 2026, an increase of just 11 contracts, or 0.2%.

• Once again, the Virginia Countryside deserves credit for holding its ground.
• Contract activity declined from 88 to 86, a difference of just two transactions. Activity below $750,000 was virtually unchanged, and contracts below $300,000 actually increased slightly. The higher-priced market was somewhat softer overall, although two properties above $1.5 million went under contract compared with none during the same week last year.
• That's a reasonably steady performance in an otherwise difficult regional market.
• The West Virginia Panhandle had a tougher week. Contracts declined from 96 to 66, with particularly pronounced weakness between $500,000 and $749,999, where activity fell from 18 contracts to just five. Activity below $300,000 also dropped substantially.
• As always, relatively small transaction totals can produce dramatic percentage swings in these markets. Nevertheless, the Panhandle's repeated weekly declines are becoming difficult to dismiss as ordinary volatility.
• The encouraging news is that both markets experienced shorter marketing times.
• In the Countryside, average days on market declined from 44.7 to 41.0 days. The Panhandle improved even more substantially, from 50.5 to 40.7 days.
• That brought the combined weighted average down 14.4%, an especially interesting result alongside a 17.4% decline in contract activity.
• As we've noted in the Metro DC commentary, shorter marketing times don't necessarily mean overall demand is strengthening. Days on market measures the properties that successfully found buyers, not those still waiting.
• Nevertheless, the improvement suggests that buyers who remain active are finding homes they're willing to purchase without prolonged hesitation.
• And there are still encouraging longer-term trends. The Countryside remains ahead of last year's contract pace, while higher-priced properties continue to demonstrate considerable year-to-date strength in both markets.
• The broader slowdown is real, but it hasn't affected every location or price category equally.

• Virginia Countryside 88 86 -2.3%
• West Virginia Panhandle 96 66 -31.3%

Our familiar heartbeat continues, although the Countryside is doing most of the heavy lifting at the moment. The Panhandle's recent weakness is concerning, and the combined year-to-date advantage has narrowed to almost nothing.

Still, there's something reassuring about both markets recording shorter marketing times during such a difficult stretch.

The heartbeat may be slower, but buyers haven't stopped responding. And with the Countryside holding relatively steady, these rural markets are weathering the slowdown a little better than their closer-in neighbors.