Arlington Passes Its Controversial Missing Middle Zoning Plan. Will the Debate Come to Your Town Soon?

by Corcoran McEnearney

It’s the news that set Arlington County abuzz and could be coming to a neighborhood near you, but what exactly is “The Missing Middle” and how will it affect local real estate?

After years of debate, the Arlington County Board unanimously voted 5-0 on Wednesday (March 22) to expand housing options in portions of the county that currently only allow single-family detached homes. The changes will take effect July 1, 2023 and per the County press release, the passage of the zoning amendment “will allow for Expanded Housing Options (EHO) development for up to 6 units per residential lot—if certain conditions are met, including the same building height, setbacks, and size as allowed for single-detached homes.”

The initiative came in response to the lack of housing inventory – especially affordable housing; from March 2022 to March 2023 single family detached homes in Arlington sold at a median price of $1,167,000 and an average sales price of $1,315,000 – and encountered passionate discussion for and against the plan.

Those in favor of the amendment pointed to the fact that 75% of land zoned residential in Arlington is exclusively for single-family, detached homes, leaving a large portion of the population, including many communities with diverse demographics, with limited housing options. Those opposed had concerns about overcrowding, construction that was out of place with existing homes, and declining property values for homes next to multiplex construction. Both sides are unsure about unintended consequences to county infrastructure such as utilities, schools, parking and traffic.

While Arlington County is the first local jurisdiction to adopt a “Missing Middle” strategy, it’s an acute crisis in dense cities nationwide and local governments are moving to end outdated zoning regulations that were often enacted on the basis of racial discrimination and segregation. The Washington Post recently reported “the push to relax zoning rules, first implemented in cities such as Minneapolis and Portland, Ore., marks something of a departure from Arlington’s existing ‘smart growth’ philosophy, which encouraged density along mass-transit lines but generally kept it to a minimum everywhere else.”

It is expected the “Missing Middle” debate will be taken up throughout the DC-Metro area as inventory continues to decline and more and more buyers and renters enter the market. Demographically, there are at least five generations of buyers or sellers of real estate, ranging from Gen Z (upper range is age 26) to Post War (lowest range is age 78).

Rising construction costs due to inflation and supply chain issues and recent halts in new home construction (mid-2000’s and the Covid-19 pandemic) means more competition for existing homes while the hike in interest rates in 2022 meant many would-be sellers are staying put. In short, there are not enough homes for the people who need them and the homes that are available are often out of the price-range for Arlington citizens.

This is a continuing story and McEnearney Associates will be reporting on updates throughout the year.